The latest gross domestic product numbers are expected to show a solid rebound as the country loosened its Covid-19 restrictions to close out 2021.

GDP figures for the three months ended December are set to be released on Thursday, with some banks predicting a quarterly growth of about 3.5 per cent as activity recovered.

The economy shrank 3.7 per cent in the 2021 September quarter as the whole country was in lockdown.

ANZ bank and Westpac are predicting rebounds of 3.5 per cent and 3.8 per cent respectively, while BNZ is more conservative at 3 per cent.

But Infometrics chief forecaster Gareth Kiernan is even less optimistic, owing to the prolonged lockdown in our biggest economic centre.

"It is just a function of Auckland being 35-40 per cent of the nationwide economy and we know those level three restrictions will have something of an impact on the economy's ability to operate," Kiernan says.

"Also additionally of course with the hard border around Auckland that will have impacted on some sort of business partly related to travel-related stuff."

For those reasons, he's forecasting GDP growth of 2.5 per cent.

The fourth quarter GDP numbers will also paint a very different picture to what is happening at present.

"The economy performed really well in January from what we can tell. But since Omicron has come into the scene within New Zealand, we are seeing that impacting on activity. Spending was down by about 8 per cent between January and February, as businesses were forced to cut back on some of their operations," Kiernan says.

"We've seen of course more than 10 per cent of the workforce isolating either because they've had Omicron or they've been a close contact."

He says there's also a hesitancy to go out because of the risks of the virus.

It all adds up to a potential slip for the first quarter of 2022.

The country's biggest bank, ANZ, offered similar views in its commentary around the fourth quarter GDP figures.

"Let's not get out the bubbly just yet," the bank says. "After all, these data are already ancient history in a rapidly changing and geopolitically tumultuous world.

"And while growth may well come in ahead of the Reserve Bank ... forecast of 2.3 per cent [quarterly growth], with Omicron now rife, extreme inflation gobbling up household incomes, geopolitical tensions weighing on global sentiment, and housing having turned definitively downwards, strong growth in Q4 will only lower the hurdle for a technical recession over the first half of 2022."

-RNZ.