Bay of Plenty councils are preparing for the worst of El Niño, but hoping for the best.

Forecasts predict hotter, drier and windier conditions for spring and summer across New Zealand.

Earth Sciences New Zealand says that means stronger westerly winds, reduced rainfall and temperature spikes for the Bay of Plenty.

Bay councils have made “precautionary” plans for water restrictions should El Niño reduce rainfall as expected.

Communities have been advised to monitor their water usage to avoid restrictions.

Tauranga City Council head of city waters Wally Potts said El Niño conditions could increase pressure on water supplies.

He said the council had updated its drought management and water restriction procedures.

“Water demand, source water availability, reservoir levels and network performance are monitored on an ongoing basis, with a range of response options available if supplies come under pressure.”

Potts said the council had strengthened Tauranga’s water supply with investment in the Waiāri Water Supply Scheme.

The treatment facility, which has operated since 2022, produces up to 15 million litres of water per day and has increased treatment capacity.

Potts said the scheme had reduced the need for water restrictions during previous periods of prolonged dry weather.

He said the council would continue using modelling, forecasting and advisory services provided by Government agencies to monitor El Niño conditions.

“This helps us to identify emerging risks early and determine whether any operational response may be required.”

Potts said the council’s city waters team had reviewed emergency response plans, drought management procedures and operational readiness for El Niño impacts.

He said the council’s focus was on “using water wisely” and securing the city’s water supply.

“This is precautionary planning and forms part of our normal approach to managing water supply risks and preparing for dry weather conditions.”

El Niño's impact on NZ winter 2026. Photo / Earth Sciences New Zealand

Western Bay of Plenty District Council water services director Coral-Lee Ertel said water restrictions were possible if demand increased or storage and capacity came under pressure.

“Our aim will be to encourage water conservation early and avoid more significant restrictions wherever possible.”

She said the council would monitor water demand and network performance and had a staged restriction framework.

It would also run public education and water conservation campaigns to reduce demand, Ertel said.

“By reducing demand early, the community can help lessen the likelihood of more significant restrictions later in the summer.”

Ertel said the community could take small actions to help: fix leaking taps and toilets, use water-efficient appliances, water gardens only when necessary, avoid unnecessary outdoor water use, and be mindful of household water consumption.

Rotorua Lakes Council infrastructure and assets group manager Stavros Michael said staff were “vigilant” in monitoring the Redwoods forest and other areas at high risk of wildfires.

He said extended dry periods, as expected with El Niño, could affect isolated rural, lakeside and marae communities, primary industries and increase the risk of wildfires.

Lake Tarawera near Rotorua. Photo / Laura Smith

“Rotorua Lakes Council is preparing for the drier conditions that can come with El Niño.”

Michael said the council had a drought management plan which included public education, water conservation advice and water restrictions.

“While Rotorua water sources are generally resilient in the short term, prolonged dry weather and higher demand can place pressure on water supply infrastructure, including pumps and storage.”

Fire and Emergency New Zealand was preparing early for a challenging wildfire season.

District commander Jeff Maunder said a Bay of Plenty operations base had been established.

The base could sustain 48-hour incidents without re-provisioning, using operation and sleeping tents with equipment, generators, satellite phones and provisions.

Maunder said no two El Niño seasons were the same.

He said previous significant El Niño events were associated with below-normal rainfall, above-average temperatures, and strong westerly winds.

“Current indicators are pointing to a strong El Niño pattern that may bring hotter, drier and windier conditions to many parts of the country.”

Rural environments will be vulnerable to wildfires during prolonged dry periods. Photo / Alex Cairns

He said prolonged dry weather could increase vegetation flammability and the possibility of fast-moving fires, particularly in grassland, forestry and rural environments.

“Eastern areas of both the North and South Islands, with parts of the central and northern North Island, could face elevated wildfire risk if forecast conditions eventuate.”

Maunder said Fire and Emergency New Zealand had plans for these scenarios, including firefighting tactics and resources such as tankers, foam and retardants, and earthmoving equipment.

A Bay of Plenty Regional Council spokesperson said river flows, groundwater levels and soil moisture were within the expected range.

However, the council would monitor conditions and provide updates.

The spokesperson said low rainfall could increase pressure on rivers, groundwater, lakes and freshwater ecosystems.

This could affect waterway health and the species that depend on them, they said.

The council collected rainfall, river level, streamflow, groundwater and soil moisture data from monitoring sites.

It also had a dry-weather and water-shortage management framework.

“If water availability declines and conditions indicate an increased risk to waterway health, we will work alongside local councils, Ministry for Primary Industries, Emergency Management Bay of Plenty, Rural Support Trust and industry representatives to support a co-ordinated regional response.”

Bijou Johnson is a multimedia journalist based in Bay of Plenty. A passionate writer and reader, she grew up in Tauranga and developed a love for journalism while exploring various disciplines at university. She holds a Bachelor of Arts in Classical Studies from Massey University.