Smartgrowth is beginning the first in its series of free ‘Smart Talk, Future Thinking' events by bringing to town a Massey university professor known for speaking about the coming decline of the regions.

In a recent Radio New Zealand interview, Paul Spoonley says what is happening in the regions between now and the 2030s is a story which many regional residents don't want to grasp or understand.

The editor of Rebooting the Regions – why low of zero growth needn't mean the end of prosperity - Paul says understanding what the country's demographic future looks like is the first step to asking what are we going to do about it?

The data shows many regions will decline in number of people living there, and they will be older. A major demographic change is already occurring, which will force many regions to manage the decline of their towns.

'But they're not going to like it,” says Paul.

Tauranga on the other hand will be fine, and is a part of the Auckland-Hamilton-Tauranga golden triangle that will dominate the New Zealand economy in the next 20-30 years.

'It's very difficult to get across to locals what population stagnation or population decline looks like and what it means to you. Many don't want to hear that story.

'And politicians of course don't want to broadcast the fact that as a local authority we have to deal with that.”

In terms of regional territories, two thirds of them will be in population stagnation or decline, and population growth will be focused on a small number of cities or regions.

'Auckland, Hamilton, Tauranga; they will do very nicely. There will be some spill over from Auckland's growth but they are doing well in their own right.

'Tauranga's booming. Of course there's a number of things going on. It's a retirement destination, attractive life style, it's close to Auckland and it's doing something that competes with Auckland, like having a port. It will do alright.

'Wellington will begin to flatline, Canterbury of course the rebuild, Queenstown Lakes will continue to do well - but outside of that, particularly the east cost of the North Island, the West Coast, Northland; you are looking at a fairly dismal future unless politically you say right this is the reality, what are we going to do that is going to be different.”

Smartgrowth Implementation manager Bernie Walsh says Paul's Tauranga talk is going to be tailored to the circumstances of the Bay of Plenty.

'What we are bringing him in to talk about, he's expert in general on population change, migration change, regional futures,” says Bernie.

'In terms of our talk, it's around demographic change. We have an ageing population and he's an expert around the positive things around the senior economy how you can leverage off that.”

Paul will be speaking ASB Baypark at Truman Lane on Tuesday, February 7, from 3pm to 5pm. Entry is free but registration is essential.