El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean typically mean an increased likelihood of stormy southerlies over New Zealand.

This El Nino winter has been no exception, and the trend is set to continue as long range forecasts indicate colder than average weather for the country over the next few weeks.

A few more frosty mornings are expected.

"There is a respite from the chilly conditions heading into the weekend though, as warm northerlies on the leading edge of a trough sweep over the country,” says MetService meteorologist Rob Kerr.

'However, severe weather warnings and watches have been issued as those northerlies bring heavy rain and strong winds to many places.

'Warnings and watches are currently in place for western and northern parts of the South Island, and a significant band of rain is forecast to affect the Auckland region during Friday afternoon with a burst of heavy rain likely during the busy school pick up time.”

A complex trough brings colder and unsettled conditions across Aotearoa, including cool showery southwesterlies around Eden Park for the Bledisloe Cup decider on Saturday night. Take a waterproof layer and expect temperatures of 10-12C.

The trough continues its journey eastwards on Sunday, and is followed by a narrow ridge over the South Island.

The ridge slides over the North Island on Monday, while strong northwesterlies blow over the South Island ahead of the next trough rushing in from the Southern Ocean.