School leavers in some of New Zealand’s poorest and smallest districts face a near-impossible battle to find work or training places, with unemployment among those aged 15-24 jumping dramatically in the past year.

Youth unemployment is soaring and, at nearly 15%, is roughly three times that of the wider working-age population – which is also at a near nine-year high.

Fresh analysis of quarterly statistics by data analytics consultancy Dot Loves Data found that, in the 12 months to March 2026, many regions saw the number of those aged 15-24 who are not in employment, education or training – known as Neets – jump by more than a third. In some areas, the rate almost doubled.

Ōpōtiki district has the highest youth Neet rate at 42.8% (up 42% from March 2025), followed by Kawerau district at 39.5% (up 28%). Westland saw its Neet rate increase by 134% (to 20.1%), while Grey district sits at 19%, up from 9% (a 109% rise).

Queenstown has a comparatively low Neet rate at 6.9%, though that is up 130% (from 3% in the March 2025 quarter).

In comparison, New Zealand’s overall unemployment rate was reported by Stats NZ in March 2026 as 5.3%.

Dot Loves Data director Justin Lester said the worst-hit areas already faced population decline, skills shortages and economic pressure, and the “absolutely shocking” figures pointed to a dangerous cycle for regional New Zealand.

The sharp rise in youth unemployment was “a tragedy” for young people trying to get a foothold in the job market, which threatened the future of many communities.

“When young people cannot find opportunities locally, they are forced to leave their communities in search of work. That means fewer skilled workers, fewer young families putting down roots, and shrinking local economies struggling to sustain essential services, businesses, and long-term growth.”

Lester said he was a child in Invercargill in 1991 when the Ocean Beach freezing works closed.

“It took 30 years for the Invercargill population to get back to where it was in the late 1980s ... it’s all well and good to say, look, we’re working hard to get jobs back but, unless you’re creating local employment, sometimes these small rural locations just never get back there, or it can take decades.”

Regional youth unemployment needed to become a national economic priority.

“We need to be investing in local employment. We need New Zealand-based jobs. We need New Zealand-owned businesses.

“It’s really concerning to see how badly these rural communities are being impacted, and it must be incredibly dispiriting for young people across New Zealand.”

‘We have a lot of young people who have big dreams’

Alex Le Long, who runs Te Ariroa, a centre for Ōpōtiki’s rangatahi, told Morning Report that many children struggled with mainstream education.

The range of reasons for not going to school included opting for seasonal kiwifruit work or staying home to take care of whānau members.

Young people turn to seasonal kiwifruit work to pass time and earn money.

Le Long said the centre promoted educational opportunities for rangatahi aged 8 to 18.

“We have a very young age of independence here in Ōpōtiki. A lot of our young people are roaming from 8, even as young as 6, I’ve seen without parental supervision.”

Parents were either at work or had other commitments such as looking after younger children, she said.

“As a result, they age up and grow up quite quickly ... so that makes it quite tricky.”

Young people she worked with were not short of interests or aspirations. “They want to learn about lashes, make-up. They want to learn about building and plumbing, but from a younger age.

“They want to learn services. One young person I talked to yesterday wants to be an architect – he’s 15. So, we have a lot of young people who have big dreams. However, there’s a lot of barriers.”

Ōpōtiki’s distance from main centres, and people’s connection to the community there, made leaving hard.

“When they go over to study in Waikato University or even at Victoria [University of Wellington], they’ll come back because they don’t have that wraparound support like they have here in Ōpōtiki.

“They’re quite lucky with the number of people who love and care for them.”

- RNZ