Bay of Plenty residents can expect a muggy and wet end to the working week, but the good news is that sunshine and calmer conditions are on the way.

MetService said rain and humidity will peak on Friday, with the region sitting in the squeeze between weather fronts pushing down from the north and up from the south.

A yellow heavy rain watch has been issued for the Western Bay of Plenty from Thursday evening, with the potential for bursts of intense rainfall as the system moves through.

Friday will be the wettest day, as the northern and southern fronts converge, bringing rain to almost every part of the motu.

Thunderstorms may develop over the North Island, including Bay of Plenty, in the latter half of the day.

MetService meteorologist Silvia Martino said people should keep an eye on the radar, because localised heavy downpours may pop up outside the official watch areas.

“Very heavy rain could show up in spots outside the broad-scale heavy rain watch areas – Friday will be a day to keep an eye on the rain radar, wherever you are in the country.”

Warm, muggy nights

The warm, moisture-laden subtropical air is also delivering unseasonably warm nights, with temperatures expected to stay in the high teens to low 20s across the upper North Island.

Bay of Plenty’s overnight low on Friday will feel muggy and humid, with no significant cooling until the weekend’s southwesterlies arrive.

Yellow Heavy Rain Watches for Coromandel, western Bay of Plenty, Tasman, Buller, the ranges of Grey and Westland, and Fiordland.

With possible thunderstorms in the forecast later on Friday, there could be very heavy rain in spots outside the broad-scale Watch areas pic.twitter.com/coezkE7l4W

— MetService NZ (@MetService) March 12, 2026

Weekend clears for Tauranga events

A fresh southwesterly change early Saturday will sweep away the humidity, clearing showers for most areas.

While some spots in the south of the country may experience a few light showers, the weather in Bay of Plenty is expected to rapidly improve through Saturday.

Sunday is shaping up to be the standout day, with light winds, clear skies and afternoon temperatures climbing back into the 20s.

The timing couldn’t be better for the busy weekend of events in the region.

“It’s set to be a sunny weekend up and down the country,” Martino said, “whether you’re heading to… the T20 Doubleheader in Tauranga, or getting out and about in your own backyard.”

At a glance: Bay of Plenty forecast

Friday:

Widespread rain with possible thunderstorms. Heavy rain watch for western BOP. Muggy overnight temperatures continue.

Saturday:

Southwesterly winds clear rain and humidity. Becoming mostly fine by afternoon.

Sunday:

Light winds, mostly sunny, warm afternoon temperatures.