Tauranga locals can look forward to a bright and settled weekend, with high pressure parked over the North Island keeping the region warm, dry and primed for a packed social calendar.

MetService meteorologist Michael Pawley said the ridge remains firmly in place through to Monday, bringing ideal conditions for events across the motu.

“A ridge of high pressure holds strong over the North Island until Monday, keeping the rain away for Ironman New Zealand in Taupō and for the Wellington Pride Parade on Saturday,” he said.

Tauranga’s weekend

While other parts of the country prepare for incoming fronts and shifting winds, Tauranga is set to enjoy consistent late-summer weather.

Light winds and clear skies dominate the outlook, making it one of the best spots in Aotearoa to be outdoors this weekend, whether you’re hitting the beaches, attending local events or hosting backyard gatherings.

South Island faces a different story

From early Friday, a slow-moving cold front begins pushing on to the west coast of the South Island, delivering heavy rain to Fiordland and southern Westland.

MetService has issued a heavy rain watch for Fiordland and Westland between Doubtful Sound and Haast from Friday morning through to Saturday morning.

Despite the incoming moisture, temperatures are climbing sharply in the east.

Dunedin and Oamaru are forecast to reach a surprising 27°C on Friday, with Alexandra tipped to have 29°C on Saturday.

These will fall back to the mid-teens on Monday as a southerly change sweeps through.

North Island events mostly in the clear

On Sunday, which is International Women’s Day, conditions will remain settled across much of the North Island, including in Tauranga, though Wellington’s Newtown Festival could have a stray shower.

Southland may receive heavy rain as the front moves northeast later Sunday, bringing a cool southerly change that will eventually push up the country.

By Monday, that southerly is expected to deliver showers along the east coast. Even the North Island may receive a few light falls on Taranaki Anniversary Day.

Tropical system being closely monitored

There’s also weather intrigue brewing in the tropics. A developing system in the Coral Sea could track towards the Queensland coast in the coming days, with early indications suggesting a possible eastward turn back toward New Zealand later next week.

However, MetService emphasises there is still significant uncertainty regarding the system’s path, and it could easily pass north of the country without direct impact.

Meteorologists continue to monitor the situation closely and will provide updates through their Tropical Bulletin and Severe Weather Outlook.