As February begins we enter the last weeks of summer. It’s been a season of extremes, with record-breaking temperatures and heat warnings at the start being swept away by the devastating storms just after the new year began.

Following the warmer, settled weekend, you could be excused for wondering if summer is making a comeback.

The short answer is most likely, but it’ll be a bit of a rollercoaster.

What is coming?

Niwa meteorologist Chris Brandolino said the start of February, although still uncertain, could bring dry clear weather for parts of the country.

“I think the theme for the next sort of probably week, maybe two weeks, is for much of the country, there is likely to be pretty dry conditions.”

That being said, Monday night and through to Tuesday will bring some rain for both islands before clearing out from Wednesday.

The West Coast will be the first to get some rain which would then move to the east coast, particularly Canterbury.

“They could be seeing a really significant drop of rain, now ahead of that rain it’ll be quite warm,” Brandolino said.

MetService had placed a heavy rain watch on Fiordland and Westland south of Franz Josef Glacier until Monday.

There is also a heavy rain watch in Marlborough south of Seddon and Canterbury north of the Rangitata River until Tuesday night.

From Tuesday the South Island could see some cooler weather but in the upper north, Brandolino said it would be “grossly humid”.

“So Waikato, Bay of Plenty, Northland, Auckland, it is going to be a hot day.”

But a hot day does not mean a dry one because most of the North Island can expect “pockets of rain” on Monday and Tuesday.

“Because of that warmth and humidity, especially that tropical humidity, there could be some localised heavy showers. But it’ll be localised, it won’t be kind of a widespread thing.”

Despite the rocky start to the week, from Wednesday onwards most of the country was expected to have a “dry lean”, with the exception of some rain in Southland.

Temperatures on a rollercoaster

The South Island was still in for a rollercoaster ride with temperatures bouncing up and down.

Brandolino used Christchurch as an example, saying the temperature could hit 30C today, but could also struggle to hit 20C on Tuesday.

Hawke’s Bay was forecast to see 28C on Monday and Auckland was set to heat up to 28C.

“So this is the up and down sort of rollercoaster weather pattern in terms of temperature that’ll be especially prevalent for the South Island. The North Island will still see some variability, but it won’t be as wildly as dramatic as the South Island.”

“The upper North Island, so places like Auckland, places like Northland, they’re more likely to find kind of a steady, persistent sort of like summertime feel.”

Is La Nina still a thing?

New Zealand is currently experiencing La Nina conditions.

Brandolino said February and March have historically been the busiest times of the tropical cyclone season, irrespective of La Nina.

The late summer period sees the warmest ocean temperatures around New Zealand and up to the north of the tropics.

“Warm water is fuel. You need more than that, of course, to get a tropical cyclone, but that’s a key ingredient.”

When La Nina conditions are active, it plays a role in which areas are favoured to see tropical cyclones.

“What it does is it tilts the odds towards something developing between, say, Fiji and the Queensland coast.”

What about those storms brewing in the Pacific?

Brandolino said there had been tropical activity in the Pacific, particularly between Fiji and New Caledonia, which had the possibility of moving towards New Zealand and causing a rainy Waitangi Day weekend.

The activity dissipated over the weekend, giving the country a much greater likelihood of a rain-free long weekend.

The impact of this tropical activity will instead be a wave of humidity.

“So, the reason for the warmth and humidity for the North Island on Monday is because what is left over of that tropical low, let’s call it, that was to our North, it’s going to make its way over the North Island.”

“I would say Waitangi is looking promising for people who want to get outdoors from much of the country.”

Brandolino said with so much changeable weather on the horizon, it was important to keep up to date with the latest forecasts.

RNZ