We are at the end of a brilliant summer for grass growth but now is not the time to be complacent.

When it comes to the weather and farming you never know what's around the corner.

The weather experts are predicting an 80 per cent chance of El Nino weather conditions for the coming summer which could mean drier conditions from Taupo north, and from east to west.

They could be wrong but it's wise to be cautious. Even though there's good grass cover now, moving stock off the farm will spell the pasture and reduce the risk of pugging.

Good farming is not all about the cows. Giving staff and owners time for holidays is important so they come back refreshed and focused for the season ahead.

Keeping cows in good condition, as most are right now, combined with good pasture cover and a good calving date should make for maximum production next season.

Achieving good production will be important because the Fonterra pay out has dropped, on the back of the recent prices achieved from the GlobalDairyTrade auctions. However, the dollar also dropped which might take some of the edge off the impact of falling prices.

Taking the long view of weather, we may never be able to farm for `an average year' again. Experts say there has been a threefold increase in extreme weather events in the last 30 years and there's nothing to suggest that won't continue.

Weather changes can result in more floods or droughts but also provide ideal conditions for pests and diseases which aren't currently too much of a problem.

Making a living off the land comes with uncertainty and challenge but it always has. The most successful farmers are those who are well informed and who pay close attention to the wellbeing of their pasture, their livestock and their staff.