The eastern Bay of Plenty is bracing for heavy rain and possible thunderstorms as a front moves in from the Tasman Sea.

MetService said the front is set to bring a wet start to the first weekend of meteorological winter.

The weather organisation said the system, arriving today, will initially impact western parts of the country before spreading east on Friday and reaching central areas of the North Island, including Taupō and the eastern Bay of Plenty.

Forecasters expect between 70mm and 90mm of rain in the eastern Bay of Plenty from 5pm Friday to 5am Saturday, with the heaviest falls likely overnight.

The rain is linked to a broader weather pattern affecting much of New Zealand, with heavy rain watches and warnings in place for lower North Island regions including Taranaki, Horowhenua, Kāpiti and Wellington.

Meteorologist Samkelo Magwala said embedded thunderstorms may produce intensified weather conditions for some areas.

“Even without the exciting cracks of thunder, these embedded thunderstorms could bring more localised impacts,” Magwala said.

The potential for thunderstorms raises the risk of short bursts of heavier rainfall and gusty winds, particularly about higher terrain.

Nationally, a northwesterly flow and embedded fronts are expected to drive wet and unsettled conditions across central and northern regions through Friday.

In the Bay of Plenty, rain is forecast to become heavier from Friday afternoon, with strong northerly winds developing before a colder southerly change expected over the weekend.

Conditions are forecast to ease from Friday evening into Saturday as the front moves further east, before a cooler southerly flow settles in, bringing a drop in temperatures and the chance of frosty mornings.

Further south, however, relief remains limited, with parts of the South Island’s east coast continuing to experience historically dry conditions despite light rain expected over coming days.

Looking ahead, more unsettled weather is on the cards, with another cold front set to move through the South Island from Sunday into Monday, spreading rain back into the lower North Island.

Eastern Bay of Plenty residents are being urged to keep up to date with forecasts and be prepared for rapidly changing conditions heading into the weekend.