The long stretch of settled weather across the Bay of Plenty is set to break over King’s Birthday weekend.

Heavy rain and strong winds are expected from Sunday.

In a media release, MetService said the high-pressure system that has dominated much of May – bringing calm, foggy mornings and widespread frosts – will be replaced by an incoming low from the Tasman Sea.

While the region can expect one or two more cold starts, conditions are forecast to turn warmer, more humid and increasingly unsettled as the weekend progresses.

MetService meteorologist Samkelo Magwala said the shift marks a decisive end to an unusually dry month across much of the country.

“It has been a remarkably dry May, with some areas on track to record their driest on record,” Magwala said.

The approaching system is expected to bring heavy rain and strengthening northerlies to western parts of the country from Sunday, spreading across the North Island overnight into Monday.

For the Bay of Plenty, this means a change from frosty mornings to wet and windy conditions to start winter.

Northern and western regions are likely to receive the bulk of the rainfall, while more sheltered eastern areas may avoid the worst of the weather through the long weekend.

MetService cautioned that rain and wind could reach warning levels in some areas, with forecasts expected to be updated in the coming days.

Residents and holidaymakers are being urged to keep an eye on conditions, particularly those travelling during the long weekend.

The unsettled spell will also bring a notably mild start to meteorological winter, with temperatures higher than typically expected for early June.