Bay of Plenty residents can expect a largely settled week ahead, with cool temperatures, morning fog and only limited rain as a ridge of high pressure dominates conditions across much of the country.

The North Island will see relatively calm weather as the ridge sits to the west, bringing light southerly winds and cooler autumn conditions, MetService said in a media release.

For Tauranga and wider Bay of Plenty, that means fine spells are likely, but mornings could start grey.

Meteorologist Devlin Lynden said the pattern was “a bit of a replay of last week”, with high pressure working hard to keep most weather systems at bay.

“With cooler temperatures, lighter winds and shorter days, areas of low cloud or fog are likely in the mornings, and may linger into the afternoon in more sheltered areas,” Lynden said.

While the Bay of Plenty was expected to stay mostly dry, a weakening front moving up the South Island on Tuesday may push some low cloud and drizzle into parts of the lower North Island midweek.

However, it’s expected to lose strength before reaching northern areas.

The broader set-up is shielding much of the North Island from significant rainfall, contributing to notably dry conditions in several parts of the country.

In the South Island, the front is expected to bring scattered showers before stalling about the northern regions by Wednesday.

Eastern areas are unlikely to see meaningful rain, putting places like Christchurch on track for one of their driest Mays on record.

Conditions are expected to settle again from late Wednesday as high pressure rebuilds, returning to typical late-autumn weather nationwide – cool days, chilly nights and lingering morning fog.

Looking ahead, MetService said the next notable change was likely later in the long weekend, with a more active weather system approaching.