Bay of Plenty residents can expect a calm and settled start to the week before a marked autumnal shift brings rain, warmer temperatures and strengthening winds later in the week.

A high pressure system remains in place tomorrow, keeping conditions fine across the region with chilly mornings, cloud and patches of fog in places such as Tauranga, Rotorua and inland valleys.

That settled spell is set to break down from midweek as a large low moves in from the Tasman Sea.

MetService meteorologist Braydon White said the long run of still, dry weather was coming to an end.

“While we’ve been enjoying the light winds and lack of rain for the last while, these crisp still mornings are about to end and the wetter side of autumn is set to come back with a bang,” White said.

Rain is expected to arrive in the Bay of Plenty on Thursday as the system moves northeast across the country, with showers becoming more widespread by the end of the day.

Some heavier bursts are possible, particularly in western and northern parts of the region.

Alongside the rain, overnight temperatures are forecast to lift noticeably.

“The wetter weather brings along much warmer temperatures,” White said.

“Overnight temperatures will be as much as 15C warmer than we’ve had recently, with minimums in the mid‑to‑upper teens likely across much of the North Island.”

Conditions were forecast to deteriorate further on Friday and into the weekend as a second, deeper low approaches New Zealand.

Stronger winds were expected to develop across central and eastern areas, including coastal Bay of Plenty.

As the system moves away, a change to strong southwesterlies is likely, with large swells possible along exposed western coastlines later in the weekend.

Fine weather is being forecast for tomorrow and Wednesday, before rain kicks in on Thursday. Image / MetService