Heavy rain continues to lash the Bay of Plenty, with forecasters warning the region could be in for a deluge on top of what has already fallen.
Tauranga and Rotorua have recorded only a fraction of the intense rainfall expected today, as a 40‑hour heavy rain warning brings the threat of flooding, landslides, and possible upgrades to a red alert.
According to the MetService website, 12.5mm of rain has fallen in Tauranga today.
The weather organisation is predicting 71.8.6mm of rain for today.
In Rotorua, 8.6mm of rain has been recorded so far, with a total prediction of 48.4mm for the entire day.
In its latest weather update, the MetService said the latest system is expected to deliver 180-230mm of rain, with peak rates of 15 to 20 mm/h, from 9am Thursday until 1am Saturday.
It warned that peak rates of 25 to 40mm/h were forecast from early Friday morning.
There’s also a high chance of upgrading to a red warning, the weather organisation said.
Western Bay of Plenty, Tauranga, and Rotorua councils have all activated monitoring protocols, with stormwater checks, contractor stand‑by arrangements, and targeted outreach to flood‑prone properties underway.
Severe weather warnings and watches are in place for a number of different regions around NZ. Image / MetService
“The worst of the weather is expected on Friday,” Western Bay of Plenty Civil Defence duty controller Scott Parker said.
He urged residents to refresh emergency plans, secure loose outdoor items, and support neighbours who may need help preparing.
In a statement on its website, Rotorua Lakes Council said from monitoring and discussions with teams across the wider region, it’s expected the Western Bay of Plenty and Tauranga would bear the brunt of the weather.
“However, our teams would continue to monitor the forecast closely and remain alert to any changes that will impact our district.
“Our teams would undertake the usual preparations and continue to update the community over the coming days.”
Tauranga City Council has activated its Emergency Operations Centre ahead of heavy rain forecast over the next 36 hours.
It said there was a high chance the warning could be upgraded to a red warning, and given the recent weather event and subsequent rainfall over the last few weeks, there’s an “increased risk of both new landslides occurring and additional damage at sites where landslides have already occurred”.
“Please take care if you’re out and about. There may be surface flooding and difficult driving conditions.
“Streams and rivers may also rise rapidly, so avoid low-lying areas and be cautious.”
To report an issue, call our contact centre on 07 577 7000 and provide the exact location. Our team is available 24/7.
As another intense weather system bears down on the Western Bay of Plenty, Tauranga City Council may look to close Adams Ave if rainfall reaches forecast levels.
A row of shipping containers inside barrier fence partly obscure the view of slip-ravaged Mauao as people wander along Adams Avenue on February 9. Photo / Sandra Conchie
Under the Trigger Action Response Plan (Tarp) for Mauao, it is recommended that Adams Ave be closed if more than 100mm of rainfall is expected within a 24-hour period or 150mm over three days.
What an Adams Ave closure would mean
If Adams Ave meets rainfall-trigger thresholds, closure would effectively restrict vehicle and pedestrian access around the base of Mauao, further isolating:
- the Holiday Park
- Mount Hot Pools
- the Lifeguard Service building
- sections of Pilot Bay near the boat ramp
The boat ramp, already within the “run‑out zone”, is closed indefinitely and will not reopen until engineers are satisfied the slope above it can be mitigated, Tauranga City Council said in its latest Kōrero mai statement.
Slip warnings for residents and drivers
With memories of January still raw, authorities are stressing the risk of fast-forming landslides, particularly around steep corridors such as Adams Ave.
Warning signs include new cracks, tilting trees or retaining walls, sticking doors or windows, and fresh ground bulges, the council said.
“Residents and visitors are urged to stay alert, avoid unnecessary travel near the mountain, and report slips or flooding immediately.”
Holiday Park, Hot Pools and Lifeguard building remain closed
The Mount Maunganui Beachside Holiday Park, located directly off Adams Ave, remains closed and inside the exclusion zone due to extreme geohazard risk.
The Mount Maunganui Lifeguard Service remains red stickered for now as geotech experts assess the landslide risks on Mauao. Photo / Tauranga City Council
The Quantitative Landslide Risk Assessment (QLRA) covering the Holiday Park, Mount Hot Pools and the Lifeguard Service building is expected mid‑year and will drive decisions on reopening.
A community still recovering
With major geotechnical work still to come, and 24 of Mauao’s slips rated moderate to severe – including 12 classified as “severe” – the road to recovery will be long, Tauranga City Council said.
“But regular updates, strengthened monitoring, and clear action plans, like the Tarp, provide the community with some certainty as severe weather approaches once again.”
SH2 Waioweka Gorge
Meanwhile, SH2 Waioweka Gorge was temporarily blocked at the Goldsmith slip site by a broken-down digger this morning.
NZTA said the road had been cleared and was now open.
“With a heavy rain warning in place until Saturday, drivers are encouraged to check for updates before travelling, allow extra time for their journeys and be prepared to use alternative routes if required.”
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