More than 200mm of rain fell 24 hours before the January 22 landslides in Mount Maunganui and Welcome Bay that killed eight people.

Waitangi Weekend is forecast to be mostly settled, but forecasters warn the weather could still throw a “spanner in the works”.

Niwa meteorologist Chester Lampkin told the Bay of Plenty Times the forecast for Waitangi Weekend was for a “few fronts” to flick through the country.

“Essentially, the overall pattern over the next couple of weeks for New Zealand is pointing towards high pressure.”

He said this would make for a “pretty easy” weather forecast for the most part.

Lampkin said a system could develop in the tropics, something meteorologists were closely watching this time of year as it could move south.

“No widespread heavy rain is forecast. However, heavy rain may impact Fiordland and potentially the lower West Coast, Southland, Stewart Island.”

In the Bay of Plenty, Niwa forecasted 10mm or less over the long weekend with “potential” for zero rain.

“If there is rain, it’s likely to be light showers or rain associated with any cold fronts moving through most likely on Friday.”

In the Bay of Plenty region NIWA forecasted 10mm or less over the long Waitangi weekend. Photo / Rosalie Liddle Crawford

Lampkin said there wasn’t a lot of evidence of rain, but it could always “throw a spanner in the works”.

“We’ve seen it happen already obviously, and it could potentially happen again in the next couple of weeks, but the odds are looking relatively low.”

He said rainfall in the Bay of Plenty for January was 400% to 500% “of normal”.

“If normal rain is 100mm for a location and they received 400% of normal, it means they received 400mm of rain.”

Lampkin said this meant soils were “maxed out” with saturation.

“However, recent dry weather should lower risk. Still, any heavy rain that is forecast, currently none, could be very impactful.”

MetService meteorologist Lewis Ferris said Tauranga had a “huge” amount of rain through January, but could expect settled weather coming into Waitangi Weekend.

“Through the entirety of the weekend, winds stay from the sort of west-southwest. There might be some sea breezes, but nothing out of the ordinary.”

MetService meteorologist Lewis Ferris said there should be a good amount of sunshine across Waitangi Weekend in the Bay of Plenty. Photo / Anna Heath

He told the Bay of Plenty Times that in January MetService recorded 408.9 mm of rain in Tauranga, marking a record for the month.

“When you consider the monthly average, which is around 80 millimetres of rain, it was an incredibly wet month.”

Tauranga recorded its wettest rainfall day on January 21, the day before the Mount Maunganui and Welcome Bay landslides, with 274mm of rain from 9am to 9am.

Ferris said there should be a good amount of sunshine across Waitangi Weekend.

“I think if people were making plans for the long weekend, they’ll be in for some nicer weather than what we’ve been seeing as of late.”

Kaitlyn Morrell is a journalist for the Bay of Plenty Times and Rotorua Daily Post. She has lived in the region for several years and studied journalism at Massey University.