It is just shy of a year since Psa was first detected on an orchard in Te Puke, sending the kiwifruit industry into a tailspin.

The spread of Psa had been contained to the Te Puke region since then, but with the start of spring and with sap starting to flow, the number of Psa-V infected orchards has increased rapidly.

Rather than looking for spotting on leaves, the symptoms are more obvious in spring, with a red sap oozing out of vines. With it, the reality is sinking in that this may be uncontainable and the full impact is still yet to be seen on the growers, the community, the regional and the national economy.

The disease has a stranglehold over the kiwifruit industry and people are saying it is the ‘foot and mouth' of the kiwifruit industry. There should be empathy throughout the rural community as well as the urban community – who will all be affected by the ripple effect as money and jobs are stripped away.

With so much uncertainty about the future, industry leaders are limited in the advice they can give to growers.

The main advice is centred on trying to contain the disease and give as much information to growers as possible so they can make some big decisions.

Big decisions to make

Growers with Psa in their orchards have to decide whether to put resources into regrafting another variety, try and carry on producing a crop, or do they cut back their vines, pull out the infected stumps and wait for more answers?

Do they rip out their canopies and start again, plant another crop completely such as avocados or tamarillos? Do they join blocks with neighbours and build a cowshed on the once prime dairy land?

The banks are going to be pivotal to whatever decisions the growers make.

At the moment, growers are reasonably comfortable financially, with the income still coming in from this year's crop.

However, once the cash flow ceases the pressure will come on.
New Zealand Kiwifruit Growers Incorporated chairman Mike Chapman says the mood is bleak.

'As a group…we are depressed,” says Mike.

'Because we have such a vibrant industry – and I do believe we'll have a vibrant industry again, but at the moment it's really tough.

'You're seeing your life's work destroyed and what do you grow next? That is the question.”

Mike says some of them are just going to grow grass.
'It's pretty rugged.”

Time for support

It is a time for people in the community to support the kiwifruit growers says finance consultant Don Fraser.
'It is important for growers to get their heads around the fact and accept that it is not their fault.

'It's actually not their fault that they failed; it's an incursion that's taken them out.

'People who are badly affected, they've got to watch that they don't blame themselves.”

Don says it is time for people in the community to lend support to growers.

'If you think they have a problem they have.

'If you think you need to ring them you do.

'Already driving around, all the gates are locked shut and there are not a lot of people out in the district. Everybody is hunkered down.”

'For an owner it's hard enough already on any day juggling your debt, your spray programme, staffing issues, family issues and the world economy which is pretty grumpy and then you've got this.”

Don says there are some good people helping out and lending support and there are 24 road groups set up to form a support network around growers. Don says growers need to know there is light at the end of the tunnel.

'Once the hard decisions have been made then the dark cloud will lift.

'Once you decide to move on and get rid of the load then you become a happy person again.”

He says in the meantime growers need to be vigilant with their spending if they hope to negotiate with banks.
'The key thing around this is to make sure they don't run up a lot of debts outside the bank.

'If they identify that it is terminal, they should stop spending, so they're not spending money they don't have.”

Don says if growers have to sell, 'and many will”, then banks may let them off the hook on special occasions.
'They may be able to negotiate with banks to retain some capital – maybe a modest amount of $100,000 or $200,000 and their personal belongings and their vehicles.

'Banks do have provisions for debt write-off, but they didn't expect to see it in the kiwifruit industry.
'But they're faced with it.”

Don says it is key for growers to get help in their negotiations with bankers because they will be emotionally involved and upset.

'So they need somebody to help them out.

'That goes back to the discounting days of the ‘80s when we went in and identified the loss and the bank agreed with it and everybody got on with their lives.”
Don says the effect of Psa on the whole community and economy is going to be hugely significant.

'It (the kiwifruit industry) was a big economic driver wasn't it?

'People have to have an income, a lot of people within the communities that go in and work in the packhouses over the picking season – that's all going to stop.
'So there is going to be a lot of cash taken out of the economy.

'Then there is the macro affect; you'll see falling school roles, you'll see retailers in trouble in the towns, you'll see doctors getting overloaded with people coming in with all their problems and that will be an issue.

'There are a lot of social issues that are going to come up.”

The man in charge of tackling Psa, Kiwifruit Vine Health Inc. chairman John Burke, is himself in the same boat – Psa-V was confirmed on his Gold orchard at Te Puke in September.

John says he is in the same position as other growers of having to make some tough decisions. When asked if Psa meant the ‘end of Gold' – John's reply was 'it doesn't look good”.

'It seems a weak plant; grafting back Gold is not an option.”

John says KVH and Zespri are reluctant to encourage growers to graft new varieties, even though some of the new varieties seem to be proving more resistant.

Industry advice uncertain

'The industry is reluctant to go out with wholesale recommendations to growers around ‘try this new cultivator' – and it could fail.

'So they would have spent a whole lot more money regrafting and growing it back and training it – and it tips over on them. So that's more money down the gurgler.”

So if they are not grafting and are having to cut out the infected Gold orchards what is left?

'It might be better for some growers to actually pull their vines out and wait, but of course with that, you have a bank loan, which you might have to pay interest on, so it's a really tough financial decision for them.”
John says one of the things KVH is looking to do is give growers some considerations around their options.

'So a grower with really heavy infection could make the decision quite easily to cut their vines off. And if they think the infection is right in the stem of the vine, which we have found – when it's gone right though the plant – they've had to pull them out by the roots.

'If they think the infection is just in the canopy of the vine, well a lot of them will either go for cutting below the graft and looking to graft on something else onto that stump.

'The human instinct is to say ‘I've got to keep going', but financially it may be better to actually do a ‘stop loss and wait' – and deal with how you're going to cash flow your way through it until you can find a more resistant root stock and cultivator to put on your vine.

'We're saying to the growers and we're saying to the banks – we're talking about a timeline; we've set ourselves an objective to find some serious solutions by 2013.

'We're trying to get everyone planning two years out to say ‘I've got to get through this hole, but of course come 2013 you're not going to be back to full production again.'”