There is no panic stations yet – but Bay of Plenty farmers are mindfully preparing for another dry summer.

Federated Farmers Bay of Plenty provincial president, Rick Powdrell, says farmers would like to see more rain, but don't believe there will be a severe drought like last summer.

Farmers are optimistic about conditions for the summer period.

'The rain we had a week or so ago was very good – and as per normal, the guys in the higher country got a bit more than guys in lower country,” says Rick.

'But most relevant is the soil moisture levels – which are below normal for this time of year.”

Rick is concerned a drought could be on the way, but believes the long-range forecast suggests about normal rainfall is predicted for this summer.

'But, if we're starting with a soil moisture deficit – it is a bit of a worry.”

Rick says the long range forecast has given farmers 'a rather favourable outlook”.

'But I can think of a few previous years when we've been given this [favourable] outlook and things have gone the other way. With weather – it can easily go one way, or the other”.

Ricks says with soil moisture levels lower than optimum and an 'okay long range forecast” the key is getting the right amount of rain at the right time – to starve off dry conditions.

'We don't want a big dollop of rain at once – we need a reasonable amount of dollops a reasonable amount of times during summer.”

Ricks says farmers are now underway with harvesting hay, silage and other feed supplements to help them through if dry weather persists.

'Farmers are particularly cautious after what happened last year, where a whole lot of people had to use their all the [feed] reserves they had.”

'For example, I had put hay in a barn a few years prior, but that's all gone now and I'm starting start from zero point as far as supplements go – so I'll have to top those up.”

As result, Rick is sure farmers will be storing surpluses from favourable mild conditions during winter and spring.

On the flipside, New Zealand Kiwifruit Growers Incorporated chairman Neil Trebilco says with Psa-V currently on growers' minds – the dry weather brings a chance to slow down the spread of the bacterial kiwifruit vine disease.

Favouring moisture, Psa-V tends to be much more inactive in dry weather – so Neil says growers will be happy if this weather continues.

'If it's dry – growers are not going to be too unhappy,” says Neil.

'But if it becomes very dry – it can affect the fruit size later on – but the upside of this weather is good pollination, as bees like to work in good weather.

'As result, we don't expect any negative results at this point.”

Neil says some orchardists with shallow soil might be affected if the region's summer comes dry but most have deeper soil – 'and kiwifruit vines go down very deep and can usually withstand a dry spell and it take times for the dry conditions top affect them”.

NIWA's Seasonal Climate Outlook for November 2013 to January 2014 predicts for the Bay of Plenty is predicting temperatures equally likely to be in the near average, or above average, ranges, with a 40 per cent chance of each.

It also says rainfall totals are equally likely (40 per cent) to be in the near normal, or above normal, ranges.

Soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely – with a 45 per cent chance – to be in the below normal range – offset due to currently very dry soils, especially in Northland.

This is compared to last summer's start on December 1, when the region's soils were extremely dry for the time of year across much of the North Island.

Dry conditions persisted through to mid-December, when significant soil moisture deficits were evident in much of country, including in the Bay of Plenty.

The dry period extended into 2013 with drought declared over the entire North Island and Westland by April 5.

MetService meteorologist Daniel Corbett says New Zealand's weather is still stuck between climate patterns El Nino and La Nina – 'meaning we are still neutral”.

Dan says the summer will be an active breeding ground for lows but will also bring highs too – which he hopes will satisfy both holidaymakers and farmers in the Bay of Plenty.

'Things have quietened down, thanks to dosing of rain for farmers in the Bay of Plenty about 10 days ago. Up until then we were running low [of rainfall] coming out of October.

'In the next few weeks, we will have a nice mix of anticyclones noticeable and we've also got lows coming out of the Tasman Sea to top up rainfall.”

Dan says if last summer has proved anything its good idea for farmers to keep an eye on weather patterns.

'[This summer], we should have some tropical lows bring in rain and tropical highs bring in sunshine – but we can sometimes get stuck in a rut with blocking patterns.

'All I can say to farmers is just be aware – last summer we had usual-style tropical lows bringing abundant amounts of rainfall get stuck and we missed our chance of rain for a week [at a time].”