Tauranga was the warmest and driest of New Zealand’s six main centres in September.

The latest climate data from Earth Sciences New Zealand showed Tauranga received just 18mm of rain during the month – 21% of its normal September rainfall.

It was the city’s second-driest September since records began in 1898.

Tauranga also recorded 211 hours of sunshine during the month, while its mean temperature was 13.6C, 1.1C above average.

Its mean maximum temperature reached 18C, 1.3C above average, and was the third-highest September mean maximum temperature recorded for the city.

The dry conditions were part of a wider pattern across the Bay of Plenty, with rainfall below normal or well below normal across the region.

Whakatāne also recorded a notably warm and dry September.

Its mean maximum temperature was 18.3C, 1.2C above average and the second-highest September mean maximum temperature recorded there.

The town received 32mm of rain, just 30% of its normal September rainfall, making it the fourth-driest September on record.

Te Puke recorded its fourth-highest September mean temperature on record, reaching 13C – 1C above average.

Earth Sciences New Zealand’s climate summary said very strong El Niño conditions were present in the tropical Pacific by the end of September.

The climate pattern is expected to strengthen further this spring, bringing more frequent westerly airflows and drier-than-normal conditions across northern and eastern parts of the North Island.

What does this El Niño event mean for New Zealand?

Spring 2026 is expected to be drier than normal for northern and eastern parts of both islands, with the greatest odds for dryness over northern and eastern parts of the North Island.

Niwa said in a statement that a windier-than-usual spring is in store for much of New Zealand, especially for the South Island and lower and eastern part of the North Island.

At times, strong winds will drive unusually warm weather, with eastern parts of both islands likely to see spikes in high temperatures, which combined with dryness, will result in increased wildfire risk.

An active, stormy spring is expected for the western and lower South Island, as frequent fronts and low-pressure systems bring periods of high wind and heavy rain, and consequently increased chances of flooding.

How long will this El Niño event last?

Usually, El Niño peaks in the summer, between December and February. The latest forecasts suggest this El Niño may reach its peak relatively ‘early’, in November or December 2026.

Given the strength of the event, Niwa said a return to ‘neutral’ conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) is not expected before April-May 2027.