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OPINION

Everyone seems to be talking about the record-breaking El Niño that’s been developing since July, evidenced by the highest global sea-surface temperatures ever recorded for that month.

Locals have also pointed to recent wind patterns and wide-reaching high-pressure systems stretching from Australia across to New Zealand as signs that it could be setting us up for a dry summer.

July was one of our driest on record, with only about 7mm of rain, while August brought some of the coldest weather we have experienced for many years, including -6C frosts around Tauranga.

Terrible

The combination has been terrible for grass growth, and I think most people are starting to believe this El Niño is for real.

I’m already fielding plenty of calls for grass and maize silage.

If we don’t get a good spring flush before the summer dry arrives, there may be a few farmers needing to take evasive action.

Those -6C frosts were particularly damaging to some avocado orchards, turning healthy green leaves brown and ruining next year’s potential crop on one of my mate’s orchards.

The only positive is that, if he decides to pull the trees out and plant kiwifruit, the frost has at least reduced the opportunity cost of doing so in the first year.

A gold rush

Speaking of kiwifruit, it really is a gold rush out there.

The hectares being planted continue to increase while the number of dairy farms in the Bay of Plenty dwindles.

The big question is whether support services, cool stores and labour supply can keep pace with the expansion.

Meanwhile, in the South Island, the conversion of about 30 arable farms in Canterbury to dairying will have significant flow-on effects.

Even more arable blocks are likely to become dairy support, meaning grain imports will need to increase or substitutes used.

We may also see shortages of barley and wheat straw, which are heavily utilised by the dairy industry, and potentially stronger demand for quality, clean hay.

Maize planting

We are on the cusp of another maize planting season.

This year, we’ll be making sure we plant early, and I know some growers are looking at shorter-maturity hybrids.

For those buying in maize, the question is where pricing will sit given the increases in diesel and fertiliser.

Indicatively, my calculations suggest prices would need to be about 2c/kg DM higher than last season.

In my opinion, the economy still doesn’t have much life in it and, with the political polls heading the way they are, I’m not overly confident our economic environment will get the help it needs after the election.

I can’t help but think the recovery is going to be drawn out.

Beef!

What impresses me most, however, is the continued strength in beef prices.

So much so that I’ve decided to diversify and become a proper beef farmer myself.

I’ve thoroughly enjoyed a couple of days at the saleyards buying stock and, after all the hype around cow wearables, I’ve signed up for 120 collars with Halter.

Store stock prices are following the beef market upwards.

I witnessed one pen of black white-faced yearling steers reach $6.84/kg liveweight.

It was only a couple of years ago that the hook weight price for a prime animal was below that.

I’ve maximised my purchases before prices rise any further and look forward to the spring grass finally starting to grow.

- Andre Lietze is a director of FeedCo, an agricultural services and stockfeed business.