After a sunny Anzac weekend, Bay of Plenty is heading into a week of mostly settled, autumn‑like weather – a welcome reprieve following a month marked by severe and disruptive conditions.

MetService has no watches or warnings in place, and its severe weather outlook shows a low risk of impactful weather through to Sunday.

MetService meteorologist Michael Pawley said the region was now firmly under the influence of calmer weather patterns.

“It’s certainly feeling quite autumnal,” Pawley said.

“On Tuesday, some North Islanders woke up to valley fog, and we can expect similar conditions tomorrow under a weak ridge of high pressure.”

For Bay of Plenty, the dominant theme this week will be sunshine, with mild daytime temperatures and cool, crisp mornings.

Wednesday's weather forecast. Image / MetService

Aside from the odd light shower brushing Northland as a weak trough drifts overhead, most northern regions – including Bay of Plenty – can expect largely dry conditions.

Elsewhere, plenty of sunshine was forecast for eastern parts of the South Island, although a band of rain moving across Fiordland on Wednesday will weaken as it travels east.

That system becomes a weak cold front as it moves up the lower North Island on Thursday, bringing the chance of a few brief showers before another ridge of high pressure quickly restores more settled conditions.

Before the front, strengthening northwesterly winds on Wednesday will push temperatures higher in eastern parts of the country.

Christchurch is forecast to reach 23C, while Ashburton, Timaru and Ōamaru are expected to climb to around 22C.

Thursday's weather forecast. Image / MetService

However, a sharp change follows. As winds swing southwesterly on Wednesday evening – potentially strong for a time – temperatures will drop markedly. Those same centres are forecast to reach only about 15C on Thursday.

Closer to home, cooler overnight temperatures later in the week may be felt across inland parts of Bay of Plenty and nearby regions.

Gardeners are advised to keep an eye on forecasts, as frosts are possible in parts of the North Island south of Waikato, along with widespread areas of the South Island.

While it may feel like a seasonal shift, the settled outlook offers some breathing space – and a chance for communities across Bay of Plenty to dry out and enjoy more stable conditions after an unsettled start to autumn.