Stronger than normal spring westerlies often associated with El Nino periods are not expected to be very prominent in the coming August-October period, according to NIWA's spring outlook released this week.

Conditions in the tropical Pacific remain on the brink of El Niño. But while El Niño is expected to develop during the early spring period, lower pressures to the north of the country, and higher pressures to the south, are likely to dominate for the August-October period.

El Niño spring predicted.

The Southern Oscillation remained close to zero in July, indicating the ocean-atmosphere feedbacks necessary for El Niño development are not yet fully in place.

Early spring air temperatures are likely to be near average or above average for all regions of the country, but cold snaps, frosts and snowfalls typical of early spring may still occur from time to time.

Sea temperatures around New Zealand are likely to be near normal for the season as a whole.

August-October rainfall totals, soil moisture levels, and river flows are all likely to be near normal or above normal in the north of the North Island, below normal for the eastern South Island, and near normal in all other regions.

From August to October temperatures are equally likely to be in the near average or above average range.

Seasonal rainfall totals, soil moisture levels, and river flows are likely to be in the near normal or above normal range.