A front associated to a slow-moving low over the northern Tasman Sea is expected to move southwards across northern New Zealand on Monday and becoming slow moving over central North Island on Tuesday.
"This front is preceded by strong moist east to northeast flow bringing periods of heavy rain," says a MetService spokesperson.
"On Monday and Tuesday, there is moderate confidence of warning amounts of rain in Northland, especially about the eastern areas."
For Auckland, Great Barrier Island and Coromandel Peninsula, there is low confidence of warning amounts of rain on Monday and Tuesday.
Also on Monday and Tuesday, there is moderate confidence of east to northeast gales becoming severe in exposed parts of Northland, Auckland, Great Barrier Island and Coromandel Peninsula.
The low and the front is forecast to weaken away on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, a ridge is expected to remain slow moving over southern and central New Zealand through to late Tuesday bringing settled weather to most places. T
he ridge is forecast to move away to the east on Wednesday and moist northwesterlies develop across the South Island ahead of an active front approaching from the southwest.
This front is expected to move over the South Island on Thursday and moist northwesterlies spread onto the North Island.
On Wednesday there is low confidence of rain amounts reaching warning criteria in Fiordland and Westland and the confidence increases to moderate on Thursday.
Also on Thursday, there is low confidence of warning amounts of rain in Buller,parts of Nelson and Marlborough including Marlborough Sounds, Tararua range and Taranaki.