John Cronin BOP Regional Council Chairman www.envbop.govt.nz

There is no doubt the Earth's climate is warming. Scientists have no doubts at all, but what do you think?

Despite the cooling effects of a strong La Nina in 2011, it was globally the ninth warmest year since 1880.

At council last week, we were advised by the scientists that we can expect New Zealand's wind patterns to shift, which will also have an effect on future rainfall.

Warming will be fairly uniform across our region, the Bay of Plenty, but not all seasons will warm at the same rate. Autumn and winter will warm slightly more than summer or spring.

Summer – how does this affect us? Hot days, that is days that are greater than 25 degrees, are tipped to become the summer norm within the next 30 years.

Tauranga currently has approximately 22 hot days and these will increase to 42. Katikati currently has approximately 30 hot days now, increasing to an estimated 52 days.

For many of us, we would welcome the extended summers and these ‘hot days'. With this warmer summer, however, it is also anticipated that it will be accompanied by more rain or tropical downpours.

The region is expected to be different. By 2090, air frosts will be rare in the Bay of Plenty. Opotiki has about five frosts a year, Rotorua about 20, but these will reduce to one or none at all and frosts will become a rarity.

Again, for many of us, this would be welcomed and it would be more like Queensland. But if the scientists are right, and they firmly believe that the science is correct, the whole economics of the Bay of Plenty could also change.

The current distinct climatic seasons with consistent rainfalls and temperature variations are ideal for growing kiwifruit and growing grass for animal farming.

In the future, if the seasons change as predicted by the scientists and the annual rainfall is predicted to be the same as now, but in different seasons, then we will have to plan and consult with all potentially affected industry groups.

Many of you would suggest that climate change is a myth and not to be believed, but can we as a council working on your behalf take that risk?

If you have a view on this or any other local government issue, I would be pleased to receive your comments. I invite you to e-mail me [email protected]