I always believe in giving credit where it is due, so I'll start this week's column by looking back a couple of months.

It seems a long time ago now: local body elections were a thing of the distant future, Christchurch was still standing, and we were all luxuriating in the warmth of an unseasonably mild winter that just seemed to roll on and on.

It was about then – July 30, two months ago almost to the day, that I wrote the following:

'We have our mavericks here in New Zealand society of course, but they tend to be of a slightly lower-profile variety. One I've long kept a vague eye upon is alternative weather watcher Ken Ring who follows his own system – involving movements of the moon and tides – to predict future climatic conditions.

'I mention this because a kind of meteorological showdown is going to occur over the next couple of months. The boffins who predict weather in the usual manner (cloud patterns, wind systems etc) tell us that August and September will remain calm and mild, much as the winter has been so far. Ken Ring, on the other hand, is of the opinion that it will turn unseasonably cold, especially down south, and we will finish winter on a real low.”

Now I can't begin to tell you how many people scoffed at me even bothering to waste newspaper space with mention of predictions by Mr Ring, especially at a time when it looked, as the Met Office so confidently confirmed, like there was absolutely no chance of the weather going belly-up in the foreseeable future.

I myself – and I'm more than happy to ‘fess up – expressed a certain scepticism. But, as I wrote: 'It's not often you get such a clear diversion of opinion so I'll be watching carefully.”

Well, it turns out 'watching carefully” wasn't entirely necessary. Anyone even partially sentient will have noticed that Ken Ring totally nailed it – to the extent of specifically naming the second half of September and the south of ‘The South' as the worst bits - while the presumably well-paid folks at the weather bureau (or whatever the official predictors call themselves) might as well have been reading tea leaves. And I don't mean by that to impugn the wonderful folk working at the Tea Leaf Prediction Office.

Hats off to Ken. Kudos. Now some music…

First up, next Friday (October 8), Jan Preston - pianist, boogie woogie specialist, film composer, singer/songwriter, sister of filmmaker Gaylene, and generally all-round talented person – is returning to Baycourt with her Life & Times of Winifred Atwell show. She performed it here once before, a year or so back, to a sold-out house and has recently been taking it round the country (with the support of local rhythm section Nigel Masters and Ian Gilpin), again to an enthusiastic reception.

If you haven't seen Jan, let me tell you, she really is very impressive, and Winnie Atwell was an amazing pioneering pianist. Tickets are on sale now from Baycourt TicketDirect – it's well worth checking out.

And, looking ahead a little further, clear the schedule for Saturday October 16, as a host of top Tauranga musicians get together at Holy Trinity Church. It's Tauranga's Jazz For Christchurch concert, organised by the Jazz Society, which promises to be a very special night for an obvious and important reason.

Liam Ryan, artistic director of the Jazz Festival and leader of the band Torch Songs has been billeting people from Christchurch at his house in Nelson. He is organising the musical side of things and plans a gala-type event 'in the spirit of jazz,” with lots of line-up changes and spontaneous jams. He has enlisted his band, along with Kokomo, Bay Dixie, Carol Storey, Marion Arts, Aaron Saxon, Porina McLeod, Miles Tremlett and many others.

I'm going to write about this at greater length next week but just wanted to give you a heads-up as tickets go on sale tomorrow (October 2), through Baycourt TicketDirect. They are $40.

I don't think anyone needs me to tell them how much this help is needed and why. What I can predict is that it will be a fantastic night of music – and I don't need Ken Ring or the Met Office to know that.