Inflation likely to stay up longer - Robertson

Finance Minister Grant Robertson says the government has pulled back on spending. Photo: RNZ / Angus Dreaver.

Finance Minister Grant Robertson says New Zealand is "well positioned" to weather a turbulent time as the dollar falls while inflation is pegged to stay up for longer.

The NZ dollar has already fallen 19 per cent in the past six months against the US dollar and has continued its slide today.

It is trading at about 58 point 38 cents, up slightly on a near 13-month low that it reached earlier this morning.

Robertson told Morning Report in this situation "imported goods potentially can cost a little bit more".

Exporters, however, are "potentially going to be able to make greater profits".

"But it's a very volatile and uncertain situation."

He says the US Treasury is making decisions on its interest rates that is "leading a lot of those who speculate on currencies back to the US dollar. That has an impact on virtually every currency in the world, including the New Zealand dollar".

"Global uncertainty and turbulence is challenging and difficult for the New Zealand economy."

Robertson says New Zealand is well positioned to deal with a volatile environment.

"We've got low unemployment, low public debt, we've had reasonable economic growth over the period of Covid and we're as well positioned as anybody is coming out of there, but it doesn't stop it being challenging for people.

"So we've got to continue to work with our exporters, our importers, work with New Zealand families and households to get through what is a turbulent time."

He says that will mean inflation goes up, but supply chain constraints seen during the pandemic are now diminishing.

"While some of the goods that are being purchased internationally and imported into New Zealand, the price of them will go up, the price of getting them here is starting to come down, so there are some countervailing things for inflation.

"The Reserve Bank and others have been clear that inflation will stay higher than it has been in the recent past for a longer period of time."

He says government spending is being pulled back to the "normal" of about 30 per cent of GDP.

"We're going to continue to work hard to make sure that we're supporting both households and businesses with strong economic policy."

UK financial environment 'not looking great'

Over in the UK, the pound has crashed to a record low against the US dollar, as markets react to the UK's biggest tax cuts in 50 years.

The plunge of nearly five per cent, came during trading in Asia and Australia, before recovering slightly as European traders came online.

Former Bank of England deputy governor Sir John Gieve told Morning Report the new Liz Truss government "has come in denouncing the Treasury orthodoxy, the Abacus economics, the obsession with keeping track of the public finances".

"They thought there was more room to raise borrowing, than perhaps their officials will have been advising them."

He says the UK government's move shows "a great degree of confidence ... which will cost them a lot of money".

"What the government was hoping was that it would be able to stop the recession that's already developing in the UK, get a bit of growth back into the market by borrowing heavily in making some tax cuts and of course, capping energy prices.

"The cap on energy prices will help households. It won't make them better off than they are today, but it will save them from another big cost tomorrow.

"But if interest rates go up faster and further, and inflation is higher because of a lower pound, then that all eats into household budgets and mortgage payments ... it's not looking great at the moment."

The Bank of England says it will not hesitate to raise interest rates by as much as needed to return inflation to the two per cent target.

-RNZ.

5 comments

Really !

Posted on 28-09-2022 19:22 | By Kancho

Every trip to the supermarket tells me so. Every week I notice price increases. Still our our international debt is increasing with government borrowing and spending . Children and Grandchildren will have to pay I guess. " The problem with socialism is you run out of spending other people's money." So true. Five plus years and housing a disaster and so much more.


Dreamer

Posted on 28-09-2022 20:26 | By Local Too

Robertson can try and pump up the figures but in reality NZ is in a very bad state with its economy.


Hmmm

Posted on 28-09-2022 21:59 | By Let's get real

Looks like a possum caught in the headlights... The point of an election is to identify leaders and people with the exceptional qualities to lead the country. The current group of disparate people, that laughingly call themselves a government, totally lack any qualities for leadership. The PM is increasingly being seen to be performing on the international stage and appears to offer very little leadership and support to her inept ministers that are left to their own devices. Where is the leadership around 3 waters, increasing criminal activities, poor educational standards, "child" poverty and just about any other platform that they have paraded around on...? Where is the leadership...? But somehow they bumbled their way through the pandemic and benefited from a sparce population spread around separate islands.... Go figure.


Government spending and debt is inflationary

Posted on 29-09-2022 12:11 | By Kancho

New Zealand’s net international liability position in the last quarter widened to $179.3 billion from the end of $161.6 billion at the end of March this year.


@Let's Get Real

Posted on 29-09-2022 16:39 | By morepork

"Looks like a possum caught in the headlights... " LOL! He definitely does. There's no denying the startled look on his face. I think he can't believe that he is still there and holding the rank he does... As for policy, I have seen nothing from this man that inspires confidence. I agree with your comments regarding leadership.


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