Bay's heating up this century

A climate change assessment shows temperatures in the Bay of Plenty are expected to be about 1.2 degrees warmer in 2040 than they were in 1990.

The Bay of Plenty Regional Council's strategy, policy and planning committee has heard that by 2090 it's expected to warm by between 2.7 degrees under a low emission scenario, and 3.6 degrees under a high emission scenario.

Climate scientist Georgina Griffiths says hot days – 25 degrees or more – are tipped to become the summer norm by the end of the century.

Whakatane, which gets about 22 hot days a year, may have between 80 and 100 hot days by 2090.

Rotorua, with about 12 hot days a year, can expect to get between 50 and 60 under a high emissions scenario.

Georgina says there was no longer any doubt the Earth's climate is warming.

Despite the cooling effects of a strong La Nina, 2011 was globally the ninth warmest year since 1880, reinforcing a trend which showed that nine of the 10 warmest years on modern record happened after 2000.

Georgina says New Zealand temperature records show there has been an increase of about one degree over the last 100 years.

She says at Moturiki Island, off Mount Maunganui, sea levels have risen 11cm since 1950; an average rise of 1.9mm a year.

As temperatures rise, scientists expect New Zealand's wind patterns to shift, which will also affect future rainfall.

Georgina says warming will be fairly uniform across the region, but not all seasons will warm at the same rate.

Autumn and winter are projected to warm slightly more than summer and spring.

The warmer air gets, the more moisture it can hold, so rain is likely to fall more heavily in the future, says Georgina.

The region is predicted to get roughly the same average annual rainfall in 2090 as it does now, but rain may fall at different times, with drier winters and more summer rain, particularly inland.

Some areas will get more rain, while others, particularly along the coast, will get less.

Georgina says the Bay of Plenty will get more easterly winds during summer and more westerlies over winter, but fewer extreme winds in summer and more in winter.

By 2090, air frosts will be a rare thing in the Bay of Plenty, she says.

Opotiki has about five frosts a year, and Rotorua 20, but by the end of the century, Rotorua may have just one a year or none at all and other areas may get a frost only every three years.

Current predictions are for a sea-level rise of 50-80cm by the 2090s, but they could be higher, meaning more planning requirements for coastal development.

The findings are calculated on a range of emissions scenarios, including rapid economic growth and global population peaking mid-century, then declining, adoption of new, more efficient technologies, and a more piecemeal response to climate change which slows the uptake of new technologies.

The scientists also considered natural phenomena, such as La Nina and El Nino, and Georgina says all the possibilities pointed to the same general warming trend.


Who is right?

Posted on 15-02-2012 09:48 | By Murray.Guy

I have asked in the TCC Council Chambers a question of an Regional Council staff member, being, "what increase has been recorded along our coastline?" The answer at the time was, "Over the 25 years we have been recording this information there has been no measurable change." Perhaps I heard wrong, or perhaps my question wasn't understood? The discussion was in regard to a coastal building restriction line due to inundation risk. It was agreed to modify the existing restrictions (Mount / Papamoa coastal structures) in light of the reduced hazard identified.

Posted on 15-02-2012 11:41 | By whatsinaname

bet this took a few thousand dollars to pay someone to work all this out...............

Posted on 15-02-2012 12:15 | By CC8

But Murray, They have a degree!! and they have to find a use for it!! They can't be seen to be definitive about something/anything or there would be nothing left to "study" and produce USELESS data about. That whole report is just a lot of HOT AIR, full of generalisations and ifs and maybes, sugar coated with "facts" that are obvious to even us lowlifes who do not possess a "degree" except maybe one of common sense. How scientific is a statement like this ? "Georgina says there was no longer any doubt the Earth's climate is warming"

uber baz

Posted on 15-02-2012 13:43 | By uberbloke

This type of computer generated 'prediction' is about as reliable as divining by throwing animal entails on the ground. It's based on endless maybe's, might be's and possibly's. It's a joke. How these so called experts can make such impossible predictions with a straight face is unbelievable. Also the blatant dishonesty of the 'Global Warning' brigade is truly breathtaking. If Europe was having and unusually mild winter they would all be screaming 'see it's proof of global warming' but the fact that Europe is freezing in it's coldest winter possibly on record, but guess what, these so called 'Scientists' are still trying to claim these freezing conditions are also caused by 'global warming'!!!. Talk about trying to have your cake and eat it. Anything to keep their jobs and confirm the new compulsory fundamentalist dogma now required to chanted to keep the funding coming in.

What unsubstantiated nonsense

Posted on 15-02-2012 13:47 | By Ken Ring

As we all know, NIWA stands for No Idea What's Ahead. They are always wrong in their 3 month ahead outlooks. This summer was going to be a hot scorcher, remember? Whatever they say is to generate a case for more research funding. Look in the Metservice data, free online, and it will be found that over the past 40 years there have been no increase whatsoever in average air pressures, which produce anticyclonic summer heat. Is there no law against misrepresentation by a government department? Ken Ring

Yeah right

Posted on 15-02-2012 17:00 | By rastus

I suppose its our taxes that are paying these academic twits who believe they have superior knowledge about the climate and our weather - what a Bleeding joke, they cannot even get the weather forecast better than 50% correct averaged over a year and here they are pontificating about what the conditions in 2090 are going to be - I would have no hesitation in speaking to this woman face to face and calling her an absolute dreamer or worse that she is full of BS - further to that what possible justification can the council have for wasting ratepayers resources by listening to this rubbish - just another extension of Agenda 21 - if you don't believe me have a look at the UN statements as to how they intend achieving their one world order- conspiracy theory NO - conspiracy fact YES


Posted on 15-02-2012 23:57 | By Capt_Kaveman

they said in Nov it was gonna be a dry Dec/jan = wrong at the same time i said after having a rare 3 good summers in a row i think this year would be a mixed bag for which it has wet /dry / cool / hot / wet etc, last year bop had reached its yearly rainful by june then was resaonbly dry after that but still way over the avg for the year and by the way since when is hot over 25C? ive been here in the Mt for sometime id call a cool summer 16-23C like this yr a mild normal summer 18-27C and hot summer like the last 3 yrs 20-33C

Just a thought

Posted on 16-02-2012 05:37 | By Jack the Lad

Looking about our fair city, I can see a large percentage of the companies that are doing well in these hard econommic times all have T.C.C contracts, climb aboard the gravy train, the ratepayers have unlimited resources to fund these inane non-sensical studies.


Posted on 16-02-2012 20:36 | By G Roberts

what total drivel from the climate alarmists... "Georgina says New Zealand temperature records show there has been an increase of about one degree over the last 100 years." WHAT AN ABSOLUTE LIE! niwa should have thier funding pulled! LIES LIES LIES AND MORE LIES! "Georgina says there was no longer any doubt the Earth's climate is warming." UMMMMMMM>>>TELL THAT TO THE THOUSANDS OF SCIENTISTS WHO DISAGREE AND HAVE PROOF! LETS HOPE THE SUNLIVE CAN ACTUALLY COME UP WITH SOME REAL JOURNALISM...VERY POOR EFFORT. EPIC ALARMIST FAIL! GLOBAL WARMING IS A FRAUD!

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