Mostly settled summer on the cards

File photo

A settled summer has been forecast for the Bay of Plenty, along with many other parts of New Zealand.

The information comes as NIWA releases its seasonal climate outlook report for December 2018-February 2019.

The report shows many parts of the country can expect near or above average temperatures, with near normal rainfall for most and some variable wind flows.

In addition it has been predicted that warmth will not be as persistent as last summer.

Regional specific predictions for Northland, Auckland, Waikato and Bay of Plenty show temperatures are about equally likely to be above average (with a 45 per cent chance) or near average (40 per cent chance).

Rainfall totals are about equally likely to be near normal (40 per cent chance) or below normal (35 per cent chance).

Soil moisture levels and river flows are equally likely to be near normal (40 per cent chance) or below normal (40 per cent chance).

NIWA meteorologist and forecaster Ben Noll says the whole country has about equal chances for average to above average temperatures, however the prospect of the ocean and atmosphere failing to fully couple in the next three months may increase variability this summer.

'This speaks to some uncertainty in the variables throughout the season.

'A cooler than average summer is the least likely outcome, it's not impossible, but in terms of likelihood it's the least likely.

'This doesn't mean there won't still be cold snaps. Using the month of November as an example, we're currently sitting at average temperatures however there have been a few cold snaps during the month and that could be a theme going forward. Not just for temperature but for rainfall too.”

Rainfall is consistent for much of New Zealand bar some regions, says Ben.

'The north of the North Island has about equal chances for below normal or near normal rainfall. The west of the South Island is showing equal chances for normal or above normal rainfall.

'We expect more westerly winds than normal in the South Island and part of that is to do with an El Nino system we have going on also the Tasman Sea may be rather active.

'The upper North Island on the other hand has the tropics to factor in, these can play a big role in how much rain gets to that part of the country.

'There will be ex-tropical cyclones that track towards New Zealand but its dependent on whether they strike that piece of land.”

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1 comment

Wow..

Posted on 30-11-2018 17:28 | By Marshal

And I thought trying to figure out how to predict lotto results was iffy. LOL..! Maybe it will or maybe it might..


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