Jane Nees BOP Regional Councillor www.janenees.co.nz

Currently on average, 14.8 per cent of our population in the Bay of Plenty are aged 65 years or over. This varies across the region – with 17.3 per cent over 65 years old in Tauranga, compared with 11.2 per cent in Rotorua. This is set to change.

Population forecasts show there will be a substantial increase in the percentage of the population aged over 65. Over the next twenty years, it is estimated there will be a 74 per cent increase in the number of people aged over 65 in the Bay of Plenty.

In 40 years, one in four people will be aged over 65 nationally, compared to one in eight today. Many more people will be living to their nineties – some say ninety will be the new seventy.

It is easy to think of all the costs that such a demographic shift will bring to our nation. Costs for health services will be much higher and it is very unlikely that the current superannuation and gold card schemes will be affordable. Provision will have to be made for more senior housing and more accessible transport.

Predictions, however, are that these older people are likely to be more active and mobile than their current day counterparts and they will be able to have much longer working lives.

Recent research released by the Ministry of Social Development in its report; ‘The Business of Ageing, realising the economic potential of older people in New Zealand: 2011-2051', makes interesting reading.

The report predicts more older people will participate in the workforce. By 2051, older people could account for one in 10 New Zealand workers. It also predicts the economic value of older people's paid and voluntary work will increase – their earnings from employment could rise from just over 1 billion to about 10 billion.

Older people's contribution to tax revenue will increase from about 200 million today to about 1.8 billion and older people will spend more; from about 11 billion now to more than 45 billion.

If these predictions come to pass, the economic burden of our aging population will be reduced. But it will take adjustments by many sectors to realise this potential. Employers particularly will need to be flexible and consider use of more part-timers to accommodate an aging workforce. And we baby boomers coming up to retirement age will have to consider staying in the workforce to fund our much longer 'old” age.

If you have any views on this or any other issue, please phone 07 579 5150 or email [email protected] or visit www.janenees.co.nz