Weather watchers are this week keeping a close eye on a ‘monster' cyclone brewing north of Vanuatu which, at this stage, is expected to track east of New Zealand.

The size and low pressure at the heart of the developing tropical low is why it is already being called the ‘Fijian beast' and the ‘Vanuatu monster' despite the fact it has not properly formed and is yet to be named.

Today's prediction for the weekend weather. Image: metvuw.com

It is expected to develop into a category three-to-five cyclone over coming days, as it heads between Vanuatu and Fiji and south towards New Zealand.

At this stage it's expected to track east of East Cape next weekend, according to forecast charts on the metVUW website, operated by the Victoria University of Wellington.

Site administrator James McGregor warns that while each model run appears to be moving the cyclone further east of New Zealand, tropical cyclone tracks are notoriously difficult to predict.

'The accuracy a week out isn't the most accurate,” says James.

'I think what the model is telling us is there is going to be something but the exact track is not precise, particularly these tropical cyclones. They are never quite sure where they're going to hit land and that can be just 12 hours out.

'We wouldn't want that to hit New Zealand. If it did, I think it would be similar to Cyclone Bola.”

Cyclone Bola similarly formed near Vanuatu in 1988, but was downgraded to a tropical storm by the time it reached New Zealand, where it killed three people and saw hundreds evacuated from flooded east coast settlements.

It is still regarded as one of the country's costliest cyclones.

At present, next weekend's storm may be of more interest to the surfers looking for the cyclone swells on the Coromandel and the East Coast's beaches.

'It's a pretty deep low that one,” adds James. 'The central pressure is 954 (hectopascals), which you see off the UK near Iceland in the North Atlantic.

'But don't often see them in this part of the world, not in these latitudes. You see them farther south.

'At the moment it looks as though the most recent model runs have it running much further east, so even some of the strong winds associated with it look as though they are going to miss us.

The Vanuatu Government today issued a bulletin saying the potential for the tropical low to become a cyclone and move into the Vanuatu area in the next day or two is moderate, but increases towards the end of the week.

The tropical low is north east of Fiji and tracking in the direction of Nadi. MetVUW's forecast charts are updated every six hours.