Farmers stay positive this summer

There may be no end in sight for the Bay of Plenty's hot summer, but farmers are 'reasonably well off” as experts forecast wetter yet hotter times ahead.

Niwa's seasonal climate outlook for January, February and March forecasts the chance of above-average rainfall, but this will quickly evaporate given the soaring temperatures.


Bay of Plenty farmers have been keeping busy making feed supplements this summer. Photo: File.

'Dry conditions have intensified over recent weeks in the east of both islands, and also in central and southern Waikato,” says Niwa forecaster Chris Brandolino in the report's summary.

'Even where normal-to-above-normal rainfall conditions are predicted over the next three months, these dry conditions are likely to linger for a while because of the high evaporation rate over the summer months.”

Federated Farmers Bay of Plenty provincial president, Rick Powdrell, says despite these forecasts, farmers are 'positively” placed after some worrying signs towards the end of 2014.

He says the Bay was fairly dry up until November and early December before some rain prior to Christmas got everything 'going again”. Farmers also received some much needed rain during last week's heat showers, he adds.

'So generally people in this area are reasonably well off,” says Rick. 'Production levels have been fairly good and stocks have been healthy.”

In recent months farmers have been keeping busy with harvesting hay, silage and other feed supplements to help them through should the dry weather persist.

Rick says conditions aren't as bad as previous years, including the drought of 2013, and is buoyed by the possibility of slightly more rainfall.

'It would appear that it will be relatively warm, which will be alight if we get the rainfall,” he says.

'At the end of the November it was looking a little bit troublesome, but we got some rain which is good.”

Although there were signs of a weak El Nino weather pattern developing, such as warmer ocean waters in the eastern Pacific, the phenomenon had not yet occurred. However, the Niwa team predicted a 70 per cent chance in the next six months.

El Nino is typically associated with stronger and/or more frequent westerly winds, leading to drier conditions in eastern and northern areas and more rain in western areas.

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