Yearly Temperatures in England 1700-2018

Weather Eye
with John Maunder

Yearly mean temperatures have been recorded in Central England since about 1700. It is the longest temperature series in the world derived from instrumental records. It shows an increase in temperature of approximately 1.3°C degrees from the end of the 17th Century to the end of the 20th Century/beginning of 21st Century. Subtle difference in timing between the warming/cooling phases between the Central England record and the other localities may reflect local climate variation, but the similarity in events between continents suggests the Central England Temperature record is recording global temperature patterns.

Records of sunspot numbers began in 1610 such that detailed estimates of solar variation for the years covered by the England temperature record can be made without resort to the use of proxy data. Reconstructions of total solar radiance (TSR) differ in magnitude, but there is agreement in form with 4 peaks and 4 to 6 troughs occurring over the time-scale of the England temperate record These are: a minimum in TSR associated with the Maunder Sunspot Minimum in the latter half of the 17th Century; a peak, possibly bi-modal approaching modern TSR values during the 18th Century; a well-defined trough corresponding with the Dalton Sunspot Minimum between 1800- 1820; a poorly defined TSR peak in the mid 19th Century; a reduction in TSR during the late 19th Century; increasing TSAR during the early 20th Century; a decrease in TSR from around 1950- 1975; and a second phase of TSR increase in the late 20th Century.

There is good correspondence with TSR throughout the England temperature record, with warm events correlating with high TSR and cool phases correlating with plateaus or decreases in TSR. However, for temperature increases from the beginning of the Industrial Revolution (Maunder Minimum and Dalton Minimum to end of 20th Century), high TSR models can account for only 63-67% of the temperature increase. This would suggest that one third of Global Warming/Climate Change can be attributed to anthropogenic global warming. Approximately two-thirds [0.8°C to 0.9°C] of climate warming since the mid-late 18th Century [1.3°C] can be attributed to solar causes, suggesting warming due to anthropogenic causes over the last two centuries is 0.4 to 0.5°C.

Source Alan D Smith

“An Analysis of Climate Forcing's from the Central

England Temperature Record”

British Journal of Environment & Climate Change

7(2): 113-118, 2017

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